Best Way To Win Roulette In Casino
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Observe the wheel, note people’s wagers, and look for trends. Watch the croupier, or the casino roulette worker, spin the wheel and release the ball, observe the ball as it spins around the rim, and study other people’s wagers. Check for wheel biases, or numbers or sections where the ball repeatedly lands. The best payouts in roulette tend to be on the Inside Bets, but you will need to understand that the chance of hitting an Inside Bet is much slimmer compared to the Outside Bets, which are up to 50%, depending on the version of online roulette you are playing. Outside Bets are truly your best friends. Types of Roulette Strategies – Best Way to Win at Roulette. There are quite a few roulette strategies out there, so there is a need for categorisation. We think the easiest way to approach this is to separate the methods in two groups. The answer is that short-term strategies do not work for roulette. They can either win over the long-term or they don’t. Either way, the house always has the edge. Roulette Streaks Make No Difference To Your Chances Of Winning. Sometimes in roulette, the ball will land on the same number twice, three times or more in a row.We’re going to show you the best betting system for roulette in order to improve your chances of winning. While there’s no system that will let you win every time, these popular strategies can definitely give you an edge. Let’s begin right away.
If we had a pound for every time somebody asked us ‘what are the best betting systems for roulette?’, we’d be millionaires. The truth is there are lots of different strategies. However, some of them can be difficult to understand and implement in the beginning.That’s why we’re going to explain the most popular ones to you. Just sit back, relax, and enjoy the ride. Hopefully, by the end of this review, you’ll have a lot more knowledge and understanding on roulette betting systems than what you did before you started reading.
Before we start analyzing the best online roulette strategies we’d like to point something out. If an online casino notices you placing the same types of bets time and time again there’s a good chance it’ll suspend or restrict your account.
If you’re playing at a land-based casino you should also be extremely careful. At the end of the day, the casinos are the guys with all the money and sometimes react badly to players trying to take it from them. Even though that’s the main aim of the game. From the players perspective anyway.Let’s start things by evaluating and analyzing one of the most popular and understood methods - The Martingale. Martingale Roulette
The Martingale roulette system divides many players. Some players love it and others aren’t so fond of it. However, the one thing that can’t be denied is that this particular system is extremely easy to understand, even if you’re a beginner.
The concept is to double up on your last bet. It’s also most effective when betting on 1/1 payouts like red or black and odd or even. The shorter odds will give you a much better chance of landing a winning bet. That’s what it’s all about at the end of the day.To implement the Martingale strategy, all you need to do is double up on your last bet until you start winning. For instance, if you keep betting on red you’ll eventually win. The point is to win all of your losses back and make a little bit extra each time.However, this can still be quite risky as the house edge is always against you. More often than not, beginners forget to take the zero into consideration. There are also table limits which can throw a spanner in the works.D’Alembert Roulette
The D’Alembert roulette system is similar to the Martingale strategy. However, there is one key difference. All you need to do is simply increase your stake each time by whatever unit you’re comfortable with. For example, if you bet £5 on red, the next time you’d bet £6 or £7.
This carries much less risk than the doubling down Martingale system. Basically, you’ll slowly increase the size of your bet when you’re losing and slowly decrease the size of your bet when you’re winning.The D’Alembert is most effective when betting on red or black and odd or even. In our opinion, the best part about this strategy is that it can be conducted with a small bankroll.The downside to this is that profits won’t be as high due to the little risk of the bets.Labouchere Roulette
Again, the Labouchere roulette system is best used when betting on 1/1 payouts such as red or black. It can be difficult to understand at first but we’re going to try and explain it to you in the clearest possible way.
Before you start playing, you’ll need to write down the total amount of money you want to win. For example, if you want to win £20 your sequence might be 2-2-2-3-1-2-2-3-1-2.There is no particular way to do this, you’ll decide your own sequence based on the amount of money that you want to win. You then work your way from left to right to decide how much you should stake for that spin. For instance, using our example above, your first bet would be £4.Each time you win a bet you’d cross out the numbers and move onto the next sequence. The aim of the game is to cross out all of your numbers from left to right. If you manage to do so you should have met your targeted winnings. If you’re feeling brave, you can start a new sequence and start from the beginning again.James Bond Roulette
If you’re a James Bond fan then we’re sure you’ll be aware of 007’s love for gambling. This is how the James Bond roulette strategy got its name.
This method is fairly simple to understand. Every round you’ll make the same bet. For example, if you’re betting £20 per spin you’d place the following bets.£14 on numbers 19-36£1 on the zeroHowever, if the roulette ball lands on any of the numbers 1-12 then you’ll lose £20 each time. You’ll need a lot of luck to be on your side if you want to make a serious profit from this strategy.In order for this strategy to be successful, you’ll need to use the same amount of units every time. If the total amount of your bet fluctuates then it’ll be extremely difficult to keep tabs on your profits and losses.Fibonacci Roulette
Finally, we’ll finish up with the Fibonacci roulette strategy, a popular system for roulette tournaments. The easiest possible way to explain this system is with another sequence. The rule is that your next number must be the total sum of your previous two numbers.
For instance, 2-2-4-6-10-16-26-42-68 and so on. It’ll come as no surprise to you that like the majority of roulette systems, this one is best used when betting on 1/1 payouts. The key is to move back two numbers each time you win a bet. This will keep your system under control and give you a better chance of making a profit. If you win on your first bet then just start from the beginning again and apply the rules that we’ve outlined.
Roulette Betting Systems FAQsWhat is a roulette betting system?
This is a form of roulette strategy that you repeat over in a game of roulette. Roulette betting systems come in one of two types: negative progression or positive progression.Do roulette betting systems work?
While they can be a fun way to change the way you gamble - a roulette betting system does not guarantee better results. What is a negative progression betting system?
This is a form of strategy where you alter your bets based on your losses. If you lose, you raise your bet levels until the achieved outcome.What is a positive progression betting system?
This is a form of strategy where you alter your bets based on your wins. If you win, you would raise your bet levels until the achieved outcome.
Must readon
Gambling is taking a risk of losing something of value on an unpredictable outcome. When you gamble at either an online or land based casino both you and the casino take a risk in losing something of value. The risk is greater for you because the casino only offers games that provide a statistical advantage to the casino. US Accepted Sites:
However, much statutory and some case law has been devoted to ensuring that casinos and players don’t cheat each other by subtly altering the conditions of gambling games without each other’s knowledge and permission. You can, though, change the terms of the game. The casino often provides a way for you to do this.
But should you take the offer?
There are two things you need to understand before you can start improving your chances of winning when you gamble. First, you can change the outcome of a gambling game. Online poker real money ny comptroller. Second, you will almost always confuse yourself if you try to do the math. These two most common of gambling mistakes help the casinos earn tens of billions of dollars every year.How You Change the Outcome in a Gambling Game
Many casino gambling games allow and even encourage players to change the stakes, the odds, and even the percentage chances of winning. Here are a few examples of how you can change the outcome of a gambling game (almost always for the worst).
Say you are playing a slot machine game and you win a prize on a spin. A special “Gamble” button lights up. You are now prompted to play a secondary game, maybe betting on the outcome of a virtual coin toss, using the prize you just won as the stake in your new bet. This is an exciting feature. It also means you are risking the loss of what you just won on a game with a better “edge” for the casino.
Most slot games have a theoretical return to player above 75%. Games developed after 2010 usually have better than a 90% theoretical return. The RTP is an estimate of how much money would be retained by a hypothetical player who spun the reels continually for a period of several years. It’s not a realistic estimate of how much money you will win, lose, or hold on to. It’s a statistical measurement used to gauge how friendly the game is to the gambler.
In a coin toss the theoretical return to player is 50% or 1 in 2. So let’s assume you just gambled $5 on a spin in the basic slot game and that you won $10. You have doubled your money. Now the “Gamble” light activates and you are invited to take your $10 and bet it on the outcome of a coin toss. And suppose the “Gamble” feature allows you to wager on the outcome of two concurrent coin tosses. Now you have a choice: bet on 1 coin toss for a chance to double your $10 to $20 or bet on 2 concurrent coin tosses for a chance to quadruple your money.
Your chances of winning the double concurrent coin toss are 25% or 1 in 4.
You would have a better chance to keep your $10 prize and just spin again on the basic game. By taking the “Gamble” challenge you improve the casino’s chances of winning your next bet. It’s like paying $5 for a quarter of pie at one restaurant and then paying another $10 for an eighth of a pie at a different restaurant. Are you really getting a better piece of pie at the second restaurant?
In the game of blackjack if the dealer offers you insurance most experts tell you not to take it. Why? Because you are betting that you will lose your basic wager. The chances of being correct (that the dealer has a blackjack) on your insurance bet are worse than the chances that you can beat the dealer’s hand (your original wager).
The bottom line here is that casinos will sometimes offer you ways to change your stakes and your chances of winning to their own benefit. If you want to win at gambling, don’t take the deal behind door number 2. Stick to your original game and be consistent. Let someone else win the goat.How to Confuse Yourself at Any Gambling Game
There is a certain idea among gambling experts that comparing the “house edge” in various gambling games helps you to make informed choices. The edge is a theoretical return to the casino, the complementary percentage for the theoretical return to player. In other words, in every form of gambling, there is only a 100% allocation of money. Gambling does not generate new wealth; all gambling does is pool wealth between the bettors and redistribute that wealth between the bettors (and sometimes also a middle man).
In the 1-on-1 game of blackjack there are only 2 bettors in your game: you and the casino. The casino is willing to pay up to the full amount of your bet if you win. It’s an even money match up, and that is really what makes blackjack so profitable for a casino. They risk less per round than they do with, say, roulette or a slot game. But if you have been reading blackjack tutorials you should know by now that the house edge is lower in blackjack than in other games, and therefore you have the best chance of winning in blackjack.
In fact, the dealer has a better chance of coming out ahead because at a busy table the dealer is playing multiple hands at once by the most conservative of rules. In other words, the casino is taking less risk per round in blackjack than the players while at the same time multiplying its chances of winning.
Players make mistakes when playing blackjack. Blackjack dealers don’t have to make hard decisions. In fact, by always going last the dealer often doesn’t have to make any choices at all. The players make most of the decisions in blackjack. And yet blackjack remains profitable for the casinos. The casinos are profiting from player mistakes.
Players make several types of gambling mistakes. One of the most common mistakes is to confuse the probability of winning with the theoretical return to player. The probability of winning is limited to the next round of play. The theoretical return to player is an estimate of what all the players of a game will collectively receive over the life of a specific game (or an arbitrarily large number of rounds in the game).
The rule of thumb is that the more rounds played for a given game the more the actual results of that game will average out close to the theoretical return to player (or the house edge).
But what are the chances of your drawing a natural blackjack on the next deal? What are the chances that the dealer will not win against you on the next deal? These are probabilities that can be computed on the basis of how many cards are left in the shoe, less the cards that have already been played. Those probabilities change as more cards are played but they rarely if ever line up with the theoretical return to player.
The mistake players make is assuming that the house only has a 2.5% chance of winning the next round. The dealer’s chance of winning that next hand can be as high as 100% and as low as 0%. The house edge is always irrelevant with respect to any individual round played on any gambling game from keno to slots to blackjack to baccarat.
When you gamble, it’s nice to know how much money the house is expected to retain over the next 30 days but that won’t help you predict how much you win or lose in any of the next 10 rounds of play.
Expert gamblers like to calculate probabilities but probabilities do not predict the next round’s outcome. The roulette wheel always has a 1 in 37 or 1 in 38 chance of landing on any given number. The chance that the ball will land on number “7” 100 times in a row remains 1 in 37 or 1 in 38. That never changes (allowing for truly random spins, although the laws of physics mandate that the spins won’t be completely random).
On the other hand, what is the expected probability of a random spin of the roulette wheel producing “7” 100 times in a row? This is where you multiply your individual spin probability (1/3x) by itself the number of times in a row (100 in this case). The expected probability of the wheel hitting “7” 100 times in a row is 1.51296e-157 (a very, very small number). But that low probability has no bearing on the probability of the next spin.
This is the dichotomy of probability theory, where you are dealing with large sequences of independent events. The expected probability does not mean you cannot or will not see the unlikely outcome. In this hypothetical example, we are simply computing how many possible outcomes there are and assuming the chances of producing the same result 100 times in a row are equivalent to a certain percentage of those possible outcomes.
Unfortunately (even semi-) random events have a way of defying the probabilities. But if someone offers you 100-to-1 odds that a roulette wheel will land on “7” 100 times in a row, verify their ability to pay and take the wager. They lose as soon as a different result turns up before the 100TH spin.
The bottom line here is simple: don’t try to do the math like an expert. Random chance will always eventually prove the experts wrong.What You Must Do to Improve Your Chances of Winning
Here are a few basic rules for improving your chances of winning when you gamble.
*Stop second-guessing yourself.
Every casino game offers you a fair chance of winning. The games, when played fairly and legally, pay prizes that correspond to the expected probabilities of given outcomes, although casinos will hold back a little bit extra in most games to ensure they make some money. Hence, in roulette, the most you can win is 36-to-1 instead of 37-to-1 or 38-to-1.
The odds are always stacked against you. But random chance favors the fool, as the old saying goes. You just cannot guarantee you are the fool upon whom random chance showers its favors.
* Take the least possible risk.
In a hypothetical game where you win 100 rounds out of 100 rounds, you will kick yourself if you only wager $5 on each round for the chance to win $5 instead of wagering $100 on each round for the chance to win $10,000 on each round.
In reality, positive thinking doesn’t work when you gamble. The more you assume you could win the more you are likely to lose when you do lose.
Risking less does mean you win less per round but that’s okay.
* Manage your money so that you play as many rounds as possible.
You are more likely to win back $100 in wagers if you divide them into twenty $5 wagers than if you divide them into five $20 wagers.
Instead of playing numbers games (which is second guessing yourself) or assuming you will win a certain number of times (which is taking more than the least possible risk) you should assume you are going to lose more rounds than you win. When you play slots or even a modest keno game (like a 5-pick) you can still come out ahead when you play more rounds with small wagers than fewer rounds with large wagers.
But how does playing conservatively work in blackjack, when the average prize is an even money bet? If you lose only 49% of the rounds in blackjack you lose. Okay, smart guy, you know you need to double down a few times. Instead of playing numbers games and assuming you can lose X number of hands and double down on Y hands, just accept that once in a while you’ll have to double down to improve your chances in blackjack.
When should you double down? The experts agree that if the dealer is showing a 5 or 6 and you have an ace and anything less than a 7.
You don’t need to double a lot as long as you can double enough to come
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Observe the wheel, note people’s wagers, and look for trends. Watch the croupier, or the casino roulette worker, spin the wheel and release the ball, observe the ball as it spins around the rim, and study other people’s wagers. Check for wheel biases, or numbers or sections where the ball repeatedly lands. The best payouts in roulette tend to be on the Inside Bets, but you will need to understand that the chance of hitting an Inside Bet is much slimmer compared to the Outside Bets, which are up to 50%, depending on the version of online roulette you are playing. Outside Bets are truly your best friends. Types of Roulette Strategies – Best Way to Win at Roulette. There are quite a few roulette strategies out there, so there is a need for categorisation. We think the easiest way to approach this is to separate the methods in two groups. The answer is that short-term strategies do not work for roulette. They can either win over the long-term or they don’t. Either way, the house always has the edge. Roulette Streaks Make No Difference To Your Chances Of Winning. Sometimes in roulette, the ball will land on the same number twice, three times or more in a row.We’re going to show you the best betting system for roulette in order to improve your chances of winning. While there’s no system that will let you win every time, these popular strategies can definitely give you an edge. Let’s begin right away.
If we had a pound for every time somebody asked us ‘what are the best betting systems for roulette?’, we’d be millionaires. The truth is there are lots of different strategies. However, some of them can be difficult to understand and implement in the beginning.That’s why we’re going to explain the most popular ones to you. Just sit back, relax, and enjoy the ride. Hopefully, by the end of this review, you’ll have a lot more knowledge and understanding on roulette betting systems than what you did before you started reading.
Before we start analyzing the best online roulette strategies we’d like to point something out. If an online casino notices you placing the same types of bets time and time again there’s a good chance it’ll suspend or restrict your account.
If you’re playing at a land-based casino you should also be extremely careful. At the end of the day, the casinos are the guys with all the money and sometimes react badly to players trying to take it from them. Even though that’s the main aim of the game. From the players perspective anyway.Let’s start things by evaluating and analyzing one of the most popular and understood methods - The Martingale. Martingale Roulette
The Martingale roulette system divides many players. Some players love it and others aren’t so fond of it. However, the one thing that can’t be denied is that this particular system is extremely easy to understand, even if you’re a beginner.
The concept is to double up on your last bet. It’s also most effective when betting on 1/1 payouts like red or black and odd or even. The shorter odds will give you a much better chance of landing a winning bet. That’s what it’s all about at the end of the day.To implement the Martingale strategy, all you need to do is double up on your last bet until you start winning. For instance, if you keep betting on red you’ll eventually win. The point is to win all of your losses back and make a little bit extra each time.However, this can still be quite risky as the house edge is always against you. More often than not, beginners forget to take the zero into consideration. There are also table limits which can throw a spanner in the works.D’Alembert Roulette
The D’Alembert roulette system is similar to the Martingale strategy. However, there is one key difference. All you need to do is simply increase your stake each time by whatever unit you’re comfortable with. For example, if you bet £5 on red, the next time you’d bet £6 or £7.
This carries much less risk than the doubling down Martingale system. Basically, you’ll slowly increase the size of your bet when you’re losing and slowly decrease the size of your bet when you’re winning.The D’Alembert is most effective when betting on red or black and odd or even. In our opinion, the best part about this strategy is that it can be conducted with a small bankroll.The downside to this is that profits won’t be as high due to the little risk of the bets.Labouchere Roulette
Again, the Labouchere roulette system is best used when betting on 1/1 payouts such as red or black. It can be difficult to understand at first but we’re going to try and explain it to you in the clearest possible way.
Before you start playing, you’ll need to write down the total amount of money you want to win. For example, if you want to win £20 your sequence might be 2-2-2-3-1-2-2-3-1-2.There is no particular way to do this, you’ll decide your own sequence based on the amount of money that you want to win. You then work your way from left to right to decide how much you should stake for that spin. For instance, using our example above, your first bet would be £4.Each time you win a bet you’d cross out the numbers and move onto the next sequence. The aim of the game is to cross out all of your numbers from left to right. If you manage to do so you should have met your targeted winnings. If you’re feeling brave, you can start a new sequence and start from the beginning again.James Bond Roulette
If you’re a James Bond fan then we’re sure you’ll be aware of 007’s love for gambling. This is how the James Bond roulette strategy got its name.
This method is fairly simple to understand. Every round you’ll make the same bet. For example, if you’re betting £20 per spin you’d place the following bets.£14 on numbers 19-36£1 on the zeroHowever, if the roulette ball lands on any of the numbers 1-12 then you’ll lose £20 each time. You’ll need a lot of luck to be on your side if you want to make a serious profit from this strategy.In order for this strategy to be successful, you’ll need to use the same amount of units every time. If the total amount of your bet fluctuates then it’ll be extremely difficult to keep tabs on your profits and losses.Fibonacci Roulette
Finally, we’ll finish up with the Fibonacci roulette strategy, a popular system for roulette tournaments. The easiest possible way to explain this system is with another sequence. The rule is that your next number must be the total sum of your previous two numbers.
For instance, 2-2-4-6-10-16-26-42-68 and so on. It’ll come as no surprise to you that like the majority of roulette systems, this one is best used when betting on 1/1 payouts. The key is to move back two numbers each time you win a bet. This will keep your system under control and give you a better chance of making a profit. If you win on your first bet then just start from the beginning again and apply the rules that we’ve outlined.
Roulette Betting Systems FAQsWhat is a roulette betting system?
This is a form of roulette strategy that you repeat over in a game of roulette. Roulette betting systems come in one of two types: negative progression or positive progression.Do roulette betting systems work?
While they can be a fun way to change the way you gamble - a roulette betting system does not guarantee better results. What is a negative progression betting system?
This is a form of strategy where you alter your bets based on your losses. If you lose, you raise your bet levels until the achieved outcome.What is a positive progression betting system?
This is a form of strategy where you alter your bets based on your wins. If you win, you would raise your bet levels until the achieved outcome.
Must readon
Gambling is taking a risk of losing something of value on an unpredictable outcome. When you gamble at either an online or land based casino both you and the casino take a risk in losing something of value. The risk is greater for you because the casino only offers games that provide a statistical advantage to the casino. US Accepted Sites:
However, much statutory and some case law has been devoted to ensuring that casinos and players don’t cheat each other by subtly altering the conditions of gambling games without each other’s knowledge and permission. You can, though, change the terms of the game. The casino often provides a way for you to do this.
But should you take the offer?
There are two things you need to understand before you can start improving your chances of winning when you gamble. First, you can change the outcome of a gambling game. Online poker real money ny comptroller. Second, you will almost always confuse yourself if you try to do the math. These two most common of gambling mistakes help the casinos earn tens of billions of dollars every year.How You Change the Outcome in a Gambling Game
Many casino gambling games allow and even encourage players to change the stakes, the odds, and even the percentage chances of winning. Here are a few examples of how you can change the outcome of a gambling game (almost always for the worst).
Say you are playing a slot machine game and you win a prize on a spin. A special “Gamble” button lights up. You are now prompted to play a secondary game, maybe betting on the outcome of a virtual coin toss, using the prize you just won as the stake in your new bet. This is an exciting feature. It also means you are risking the loss of what you just won on a game with a better “edge” for the casino.
Most slot games have a theoretical return to player above 75%. Games developed after 2010 usually have better than a 90% theoretical return. The RTP is an estimate of how much money would be retained by a hypothetical player who spun the reels continually for a period of several years. It’s not a realistic estimate of how much money you will win, lose, or hold on to. It’s a statistical measurement used to gauge how friendly the game is to the gambler.
In a coin toss the theoretical return to player is 50% or 1 in 2. So let’s assume you just gambled $5 on a spin in the basic slot game and that you won $10. You have doubled your money. Now the “Gamble” light activates and you are invited to take your $10 and bet it on the outcome of a coin toss. And suppose the “Gamble” feature allows you to wager on the outcome of two concurrent coin tosses. Now you have a choice: bet on 1 coin toss for a chance to double your $10 to $20 or bet on 2 concurrent coin tosses for a chance to quadruple your money.
Your chances of winning the double concurrent coin toss are 25% or 1 in 4.
You would have a better chance to keep your $10 prize and just spin again on the basic game. By taking the “Gamble” challenge you improve the casino’s chances of winning your next bet. It’s like paying $5 for a quarter of pie at one restaurant and then paying another $10 for an eighth of a pie at a different restaurant. Are you really getting a better piece of pie at the second restaurant?
In the game of blackjack if the dealer offers you insurance most experts tell you not to take it. Why? Because you are betting that you will lose your basic wager. The chances of being correct (that the dealer has a blackjack) on your insurance bet are worse than the chances that you can beat the dealer’s hand (your original wager).
The bottom line here is that casinos will sometimes offer you ways to change your stakes and your chances of winning to their own benefit. If you want to win at gambling, don’t take the deal behind door number 2. Stick to your original game and be consistent. Let someone else win the goat.How to Confuse Yourself at Any Gambling Game
There is a certain idea among gambling experts that comparing the “house edge” in various gambling games helps you to make informed choices. The edge is a theoretical return to the casino, the complementary percentage for the theoretical return to player. In other words, in every form of gambling, there is only a 100% allocation of money. Gambling does not generate new wealth; all gambling does is pool wealth between the bettors and redistribute that wealth between the bettors (and sometimes also a middle man).
In the 1-on-1 game of blackjack there are only 2 bettors in your game: you and the casino. The casino is willing to pay up to the full amount of your bet if you win. It’s an even money match up, and that is really what makes blackjack so profitable for a casino. They risk less per round than they do with, say, roulette or a slot game. But if you have been reading blackjack tutorials you should know by now that the house edge is lower in blackjack than in other games, and therefore you have the best chance of winning in blackjack.
In fact, the dealer has a better chance of coming out ahead because at a busy table the dealer is playing multiple hands at once by the most conservative of rules. In other words, the casino is taking less risk per round in blackjack than the players while at the same time multiplying its chances of winning.
Players make mistakes when playing blackjack. Blackjack dealers don’t have to make hard decisions. In fact, by always going last the dealer often doesn’t have to make any choices at all. The players make most of the decisions in blackjack. And yet blackjack remains profitable for the casinos. The casinos are profiting from player mistakes.
Players make several types of gambling mistakes. One of the most common mistakes is to confuse the probability of winning with the theoretical return to player. The probability of winning is limited to the next round of play. The theoretical return to player is an estimate of what all the players of a game will collectively receive over the life of a specific game (or an arbitrarily large number of rounds in the game).
The rule of thumb is that the more rounds played for a given game the more the actual results of that game will average out close to the theoretical return to player (or the house edge).
But what are the chances of your drawing a natural blackjack on the next deal? What are the chances that the dealer will not win against you on the next deal? These are probabilities that can be computed on the basis of how many cards are left in the shoe, less the cards that have already been played. Those probabilities change as more cards are played but they rarely if ever line up with the theoretical return to player.
The mistake players make is assuming that the house only has a 2.5% chance of winning the next round. The dealer’s chance of winning that next hand can be as high as 100% and as low as 0%. The house edge is always irrelevant with respect to any individual round played on any gambling game from keno to slots to blackjack to baccarat.
When you gamble, it’s nice to know how much money the house is expected to retain over the next 30 days but that won’t help you predict how much you win or lose in any of the next 10 rounds of play.
Expert gamblers like to calculate probabilities but probabilities do not predict the next round’s outcome. The roulette wheel always has a 1 in 37 or 1 in 38 chance of landing on any given number. The chance that the ball will land on number “7” 100 times in a row remains 1 in 37 or 1 in 38. That never changes (allowing for truly random spins, although the laws of physics mandate that the spins won’t be completely random).
On the other hand, what is the expected probability of a random spin of the roulette wheel producing “7” 100 times in a row? This is where you multiply your individual spin probability (1/3x) by itself the number of times in a row (100 in this case). The expected probability of the wheel hitting “7” 100 times in a row is 1.51296e-157 (a very, very small number). But that low probability has no bearing on the probability of the next spin.
This is the dichotomy of probability theory, where you are dealing with large sequences of independent events. The expected probability does not mean you cannot or will not see the unlikely outcome. In this hypothetical example, we are simply computing how many possible outcomes there are and assuming the chances of producing the same result 100 times in a row are equivalent to a certain percentage of those possible outcomes.
Unfortunately (even semi-) random events have a way of defying the probabilities. But if someone offers you 100-to-1 odds that a roulette wheel will land on “7” 100 times in a row, verify their ability to pay and take the wager. They lose as soon as a different result turns up before the 100TH spin.
The bottom line here is simple: don’t try to do the math like an expert. Random chance will always eventually prove the experts wrong.What You Must Do to Improve Your Chances of Winning
Here are a few basic rules for improving your chances of winning when you gamble.
*Stop second-guessing yourself.
Every casino game offers you a fair chance of winning. The games, when played fairly and legally, pay prizes that correspond to the expected probabilities of given outcomes, although casinos will hold back a little bit extra in most games to ensure they make some money. Hence, in roulette, the most you can win is 36-to-1 instead of 37-to-1 or 38-to-1.
The odds are always stacked against you. But random chance favors the fool, as the old saying goes. You just cannot guarantee you are the fool upon whom random chance showers its favors.
* Take the least possible risk.
In a hypothetical game where you win 100 rounds out of 100 rounds, you will kick yourself if you only wager $5 on each round for the chance to win $5 instead of wagering $100 on each round for the chance to win $10,000 on each round.
In reality, positive thinking doesn’t work when you gamble. The more you assume you could win the more you are likely to lose when you do lose.
Risking less does mean you win less per round but that’s okay.
* Manage your money so that you play as many rounds as possible.
You are more likely to win back $100 in wagers if you divide them into twenty $5 wagers than if you divide them into five $20 wagers.
Instead of playing numbers games (which is second guessing yourself) or assuming you will win a certain number of times (which is taking more than the least possible risk) you should assume you are going to lose more rounds than you win. When you play slots or even a modest keno game (like a 5-pick) you can still come out ahead when you play more rounds with small wagers than fewer rounds with large wagers.
But how does playing conservatively work in blackjack, when the average prize is an even money bet? If you lose only 49% of the rounds in blackjack you lose. Okay, smart guy, you know you need to double down a few times. Instead of playing numbers games and assuming you can lose X number of hands and double down on Y hands, just accept that once in a while you’ll have to double down to improve your chances in blackjack.
When should you double down? The experts agree that if the dealer is showing a 5 or 6 and you have an ace and anything less than a 7.
You don’t need to double a lot as long as you can double enough to come
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